Thursday, May 23, 2019

Primary Predictions: How I did, and Ballot question predictions.

So, early voting is about to start for the general election and I still haven't gone over how I did on the primary. So, here it is. I made a total of 9 predictions, 6 related to city council, and 3 for mayor. So, here is each as they appeared in my first article and how I did on them. I also cover what my predictions for the general election ballot questions. I will give my predictions on city council and mayor in a future post.

City Council Predictions

Prediction #1- No candidate will get through in the primary. There are far too many people on the ballot, all of which have connections in the community and will pull a decent amount of votes so we will be onto the general.

Result- 100% correct. Although Peggy Leavitt got surprisingly close, only 120 votes shy. Her out performance of the others was truly impressive. But as predicted no one got enough votes to avoid a general election run off.
Prediction #2-Sorry Trent and Brent, but you two will get the least amounts of votes. I do not wish to be negative about either of these candidates, but I have not seen one sign, mailer or Facebook post promoting them. In fact, I have hardly heard of them, and I don't think I am alone. People need to feel like their candidate has a chance and really wants this to put their vote for their name, and these two haven't convinced the public they are serious candidates.
Result- 100% correct. Trent got 303 votes and Brent got 97. Trent may have done better than Brent but they both were clearly less than any other candidates.
Prediction #3- Peggy Leavitt and Rich Shuman will make it to the general election. Had I written this prediction a week ago, I might have not given Rich Shuman as much chance. He seemed MIA, as far as marketing his campaign, but he has showed up and will get past this first round. Incumbents by nature have some natural advantages, and disadvantages. But the advantages are sufficient to ensure that they will both be on the general election ballot. I will even go so far as to guess they will both be in the top 3, mostly because the anti-incumbent vote will be very split with the remaining candidates.
Result- I will go 75% correct. While Peggy and Rich made it. Rich was definitely the under performer of the primary. I kind of like his, “Vote for me if you like me, don’t if you don’t” attitude. Focusing on his record rather than a lot of campaigning but it is not going well. He had no business not being in the top 3 given that the anti-incumbency vote was very split.  So, I overestimated his performance but was correct that they would both make it and correct Peggy being in the top.
Prediction #4- Tom Tyler will not make it to the general election. I know Tom and he is a wonderful man, has good connections in town and through the Emergency Aid of Boulder City but he has not been as involved in city politics and doesn't have a natural base. This will prove too much for him to overcome.
Result -100% correct. Tom is a good man that did well but I think my prediction and basis for it were fairly accurate.
Prediction #5- James Howard Adams will make it to the general election. James has been involved in BC politics for sometime. The endorsement of the Boulder City Community Alliance (BCCA) was big for him and he has proven worthy of the endorsement. He has really out performed expectations . I think he will be in the top three.
Result- 100% correct. I think James has been exactly as I laid out. A great candidate all around and really has performed well.
Prediction #6- This is where I would get in toss-up territory. I had a very difficult time guessing who I would list as the #4 slot in the general election, Judy Dechaine or Claudia Bridges. Claudia got the endorsement of the BCCA, which is big. But even those in their own ranks questioned if the process was above board. Last year, they had a candidates forum with all the candidates and after they had heard all their viewpoints voted as a group on who to endorse. This time, the BCCA founders met separately with people they wanted to run, had them present at a meeting and choose to endorse before candidate filling had even ended. This left for an awkward position for people like Judy. Judy is very connected and involved with BCCA and their causes, but the endorsement went to Claudia before she had even filed. But despite this, I think Judy has been a surprisingly good candidate, and pulled much of the BCCA base to her side. She has been more engaged than Claudia and I think she will get the #4 spot and Claudia will be in #5
Result 0%- While I did say this was a toss up my ultimate prediction was very wrong. I was very impressed with Judy’s campaign and I felt she did outperform, but clearly not as much as I thought she would. Claudia was where I was clearly the most wrong. Clearly, her natural connection with the town and hard work was more than I estimated. She came in second in votes and really out performed my predictions. This was definitely where I was most incorrect.

Now onto the Mayor predictions-

Prediction #7- No one will get 50% of the vote and win in the primary. All three of these candidates are good viable candidates and they will split the vote enough that no one will get above 50%.
Result: 100% correct. Not much else to say.
Prediction #8- Mayor Woodbury will get the most votes in the primary.  Until recently I really felt the Mayor was in serious trouble (and he may still be in the general). But he has used his strengths, good connections, and a well financed campaign to his advantage. I think with others on the ballot splitting the anti-incumbent vote he will get the most votes.
Result- 100% correct. He did indeed, but how close it was. (He only had 56 more votes than McManus.) So, I was 100%, but who could have really guessed it when it was this close? I will admit to a bit of luck on this one.
Prediction #9- This one is hard for me to write, and while I have tried to be neutral as I write this, I hope I am wrong. But, Warren Harhay will not be going onto the general election. He is the moderate, middle of the road candidate, and the middle is a tough place to win primaries from. And while I applaud his self funded candidacy, it has hurt him. Signs and mailers are not everything, but they are something and that is how some people will be introduced to candidates. What is so funny about this is that I think Harhay could potentially win against either of the other two candidates in a head to head. Why? because most people who vote for Woodbury in the primary would rather have Harhay than McManus, and most people who vote for McManus would rather have Harhay than Woodbury. So, you could see a 35% for Woodbury, 35% for McManus, and 30% for Harhay. But head to head Harhay would potentially beat both 60/40. But those are the rules, and so that is how it goes. So in the end, I think it will be McManus and Woodbury in the general election.
Result-100% correct. The final result was basically, 40% to Woodbury and McManus and 20% to Harhay. I will admit that 20% is a little lower than I would have put HarHay but I still stand by that I think Councilan Harhay would beat either of the other candidates head to head but as stated, the center is a tough place to win primaries from.
So, I am giving myself an 8 out of 9 for the primary. Not bad. So, here are my general election predictions.

Ballot Questions

So, there are four questions. Here is a quick summary, in my very non-legal, non-official terms.

Question #1, should we spend $5 million to design a pool?

Question #2, should we let city council refinance debt over $1 million without making them ask the voters?

Question #3, should we spend $40 million dollars to build a new pool?

Questions #4, Should we let people drive their really cool dessert vehicles (They should call them RCDV, but use OHV instead) in the street?

Prediction #1- Both pool questions will go down. I think this town wants a new pool and I think the yes on 1 and no on 3 strategy is a smart one. Basically give the money for design so we have better plans and numbers without giving the $40 Million dollar check. But they will go down together. As much as we want a pool, $40 million is a big ask, and people feel, I think justifiably so that Council and Staff really have not done enough to explore other options besides bonding for the full amount. The idea that they will bond for $40 million but then use other funding does not fly with most people. They simply don’t have that kind of trust.
Prediction #2- Question 2 will go down in flames. What is question #2? You don’t know and that is exactly why it will go down in flames. It has to do with restructuring debt and those type of questions need a champion and someone to clearly explain the benefits to voters. This question doesn’t have one and will therefore bomb.

Prediction #3- Question 4 on off road vehicles will pass. There is a lot of people who love these vehicles in our town and while there are those who worry about the noise, the yes side is definitely more passionate about this. In fact, this may be the question that improves voter turnout more than anything else.
Stay tuned for my City Council and Mayor General Election predictions to follow. 

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